Post-FOMC Strategy Outlook: Market Reaction, Institutional Flows, and Crypto’s Next Move After Powell’s Decision

After a highly anticipated FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve delivered a decision that immediately reshaped global market expectations. Whether you were positioned for upside continuation or patiently waiting on the sidelines, last night’s outcome set the tone for year-end trading and Q1 2025 trend structure. I am Wang Yibo, and today I will break down the market’s real-time reaction, institutional positioning, and the probability-adjusted strategy path going forward.

I. Decoding the Fed Decision: Tone, Dot Plot, and Market Reaction

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but the real story emerged in Powell’s press conference and the updated dot plot. Compared with the pre-meeting 87.6% cut probability priced by the market, Powell’s tone leaned mildly dovish, acknowledging that inflation is “moving in the right direction,” and that “the Committee sees risks to the dual mandate becoming more balanced.” Although he maintained the “data-dependent” framework, his acknowledgment of progress across core inflation metrics provided the catalyst for market risk-on behavior.

U.S. equities responded with moderate but steady gains—tech stocks led the move, reflecting improving liquidity expectations. The U.S. dollar index weakened slightly, and Treasury yields dipped across mid-term maturities. All of this contributed to a supportive macro backdrop for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other high-beta risk assets.

II. Bitcoin: Breakout Validation and the Path Toward $98,000–$100,000

Bitcoin showed immediate upside volatility after the announcement, retesting the $94,500–$95,000 breakout zone with increasing volume. The rapid absorption of sell pressure demonstrated that the earlier breakout was not a false move but a structural shift in market control.

The key confirmations include:

Strong demand near $92,500–$93,000, proving this level has transitioned from resistance to support.

Futures open interest rebuilt quickly after pre-FOMC deleveraging, indicating bullish confidence is returning.

Spot inflows accelerated, especially from institutional channels, suggesting ETF-related allocations are still in progress.

Technically, Bitcoin maintains a rising channel with no sign of momentum exhaustion on the 4H MACD or daily trend indicators. The next resistance window is $96,000–$98,000, historically linked to late-2021 distribution zones. If volume exceeds the post-FOMC peak, BTC has a clear path toward the psychological $100,000 mark.

III. Ethereum: Ecosystem Strength + Institutional Positioning = Dual Bullish Forces

Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s strength but displayed slightly smoother price structure, consistent with a healthier mid-term trend. The market defended the $3,280–$3,300 level during volatility spikes, showing that buyers are willing to engage aggressively at support.

Beyond price action, ETH’s fundamental drivers remain aligned:

L2 transactional activity continues to expand, increasing ETH burn rate and supporting long-term deflation.

CME ETH futures open interest remains elevated, showing that institutions are positioning ahead of an eventual spot ETF approval.

The ETH/BTC ratio stabilizing suggests that ETH is neither lagging nor overstretched, an ideal condition for trend continuation.

If ETH closes multiple sessions above $3,380–$3,400, the structure opens toward $3,500–$3,600, with a potential extension to the broader range of $3,750–$3,820 if Bitcoin approaches $100,000.

IV. Institutional Flows: The Hidden Engine Behind the Trend

Market data after the FOMC meeting revealed several important signals:

Stablecoin inflows exceeded $180M within the first 90 minutes, indicating fresh capital entering exchanges rather than recycled liquidity.

Whales showed net withdrawal behavior, meaning accumulation rather than distribution.

ETF-related wallets saw increased activity, particularly in BTC, where inflows tracked closely with early 2024 accumulation patterns.

Historical cycles show that when macro easing expectations + institutional demand + expanding on-chain activity align simultaneously, markets rarely reverse sharply without external shocks.

V. Strategy Framework for the Coming Days

1. Short-term traders:
Focus on defending the newly established support levels. BTC above $93,000 and ETH above $3,300 favors continuation. Breakouts above $96,000 (BTC) and $3,400 (ETH) present potential momentum entries.

2. Swing traders:
Consider keeping core positions open while scaling out partially near major resistance zones. Upside momentum remains intact unless BTC closes below $92,500 or ETH below $3,250 on strong volume.

3. Long-term investors:
This environment is supportive of accumulation. Macro conditions are gradually turning favorable, institutional participation is increasing, and supply-side constraints remain tight—especially for Bitcoin. ETH’s deflation mechanics continue to strengthen the long-term case.

VI. Looking Ahead: What to Watch Next

Before the next significant macro catalyst, the following factors will determine trend continuity:

Stablecoin supply expansion—key indicator of new liquidity

ETF inflows and CME futures open interest changes

On-chain momentum from L2 ecosystems

Dollar index trend and U.S. bond yield stability

If these remain supportive, the market is positioned for continued upside through December and into early 2025.