The data on Polymarket has been pretty interesting lately—there’s now a 93% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, which is basically a sure thing. More importantly, the probability of no rate cut in January is at 68%. There’s actually a lot of information behind these numbers.

What does a rate cut mean for the crypto market? Simply put, it means looser liquidity and lower capital costs. A lot of sidelined capital has been waiting for this signal. Once the policy becomes clear, Bitcoin and major coins are likely to see a significant inflow of funds. After all, market sentiment can sometimes be more powerful than technicals.

But on the other hand, there’s a reality we have to admit: expectations often run ahead of the actual news. Take Bitcoin’s recent rally—it’s already priced in some of the rate cut expectations. So if you see the official rate cut announcement and blindly chase the price up now? That’s basically handing your money to the whales.

Here’s a more practical approach as I see it:

If you already hold core positions, don’t let short-term volatility shake you out. If the overall direction is right, holding steady is better than frequent trading;

If you’re still on the sidelines, consider waiting for a pullback window after the policy is implemented—entering in batches will be more comfortable;

Keep an eye on altcoins—during a rate cut cycle, capital often shifts toward higher beta assets. Coins with strong market control could have decent upside potential.

At the end of the day, a rate cut isn’t a magic bullet—it won’t send prices soaring the moment it’s announced. But the overall environment is definitely warming up, and the trend may matter more than the specific price levels. Be patient, don’t rush to go all in, and keeping up with the rhythm is key to surviving in the long run.