There’s a major data release tonight at 9:30 PM—the US weekly initial jobless claims. Don’t underestimate this indicator; it’s a leading signal for the “mini non-farm payrolls” and is released every Thursday by the Department of Labor. It can stir up significant waves in both the US dollar and crypto markets.

How does it impact the market? The logic is pretty straightforward. If the data comes in higher than expected, the dollar usually weakens; if it’s lower than expected, the dollar tends to strengthen. But crypto is interesting—it often moves “opposite” to the dollar. When the dollar is strong, crypto prices tend to come under pressure; when the dollar is weak, crypto assets may actually attract buyers.

Looking at recent data, the actual numbers have all been below expectations, and the market seems to have gotten used to this “bullish” rhythm. If tonight’s number once again comes in below the expected 22, it would be a small surprise for the crypto market—at the very least, not bad news.

Right now, major coins like Bitcoin are highly sensitive to macro data. Judging from the candlesticks, BTC has been trading sideways for a while, with both bulls and bears waiting for a breakout. If the data really falls short of expectations and the dollar takes a hit, some capital could very well shift from traditional markets into crypto, and Bitcoin might seize the momentum to break out of its current range and start a new rally.

Of course, the market is always full of surprises. Data is just a reference; the real trend depends on where the money flows and how sentiment shifts. Tonight’s release is definitely one to watch.