The yield on Japan’s 30-year government bonds has been on the rise since 2020, but nobody cared back then—after all, the base was close to zero, and the world was still reveling in the liquidity frenzy. Climbing from 0% to 2.6%? Barely made a difference; stocks and crypto markets kept rallying.

But now, things have changed.

Not only has the pace accelerated, but yields have finally reached levels high enough to compete with risk assets. The Bank of Japan is starting to lose control, and once those large institutions realize their domestic bonds offer better value, they’ll have no hesitation pulling funds back home. How? By directly selling U.S. Treasuries and dumping U.S. stocks, instantly tightening global liquidity.

What does this mean for BTC?

In the short term, risk-off sentiment will trigger a market bloodbath, and Bitcoin won’t be spared. But in the medium term, if yields keep squeezing the markets and force central banks to resume liquidity easing, Bitcoin—as a hard asset—could once again become a safe haven. Its usual pattern is “take a beating first, then win big later.”

Simply put: During the bull market, rising Japanese bond yields didn’t matter because the base was too low. Now that they’re finally “high enough to hurt,” they’re starting to drain liquidity and suppress risk assets. Before BTC truly benefits, the market will have to endure a period of noise.

This matches my view: the real new bull market is likely to restart only after Q3 of 2026.