This morning, Bitcoin suddenly plunged below $83,000, and this time it's not just a simple technical correction.

Looking at the latest data, the market's odds of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December have soared to 80%, and for January next year, it's approaching 90%. What does this number mean? If Japan really acts, the $19 trillion global yen carry trade could collapse in an instant.

Here's the logic: For decades, Japan's interest rates have been near zero, so global funds have borrowed yen to exchange for US dollars and then poured into high-risk assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies. Now, if Japan raises rates, this money will flow back like the tide going out—Bitcoin, as a liquidity asset, will be the first to be sold off.

This script has played out before. Right before Christmas 2022, the Bank of Japan suddenly adjusted its yield curve control policy, and the global market immediately went into turmoil. Now, it's almost December 19, the Christmas holiday—a period of extremely thin liquidity. If Japan makes another move, the volatility will only get worse.

Look at the current market: Bitcoin has dropped over 20% in a month, ETFs have seen net outflows of $3.5 billion, and single-day liquidations have exceeded $400 million—extremely fragile.

What's even more troublesome is the Federal Reserve. Powell didn't reveal any substantive policy last night, and this kind of silence actually makes people even more uneasy. If Japan tightens liquidity and the US doesn't inject liquidity, Bitcoin will really be caught in a pincer attack.

A certain mainstream platform token has also been tanking these days. The new head of growth says they want to revive the ecosystem, but in reality, there's been severe user attrition, and many project tokens have already fallen below institutional cost. That said, the platform itself should be the most anxious party, and a rescue action may be brewing.

Let’s be calm: unwinding carry trades is just a short-term liquidity shock, not a collapse of the long-term trend. After Japan hiked rates at the start of 2024, Bitcoin still hit new highs within three months. The key now is to keep a close eye on the December Bank of Japan policy meeting and statements from the Fed.

Don't go all in. Manage your positions, survive first, and then you'll be qualified to wait for the next rally. There will always be opportunities in the market, but only if you're still at the table.