Bitcoin is being frantically withdrawn from exchanges! At the same time, stablecoin reserves have piled up to historically rare highs. What signal is hidden behind this?

According to data from a leading exchange, the BTC-to-stablecoin reserve ratio has dropped to the extreme levels seen at the bear market bottoms of 2018 and 2022. What does this number mean? Simply put: there are fewer and fewer Bitcoins available for sale on exchanges, while the amount of capital on the sidelines is staggering.

Looking back at history, this signal has never been a joke:

• At the end of 2018, after the reserve ratio bottomed out, BTC skyrocketed from $3,000 to $14,000 in half a year, a gain of more than 3x
• In mid-2022, after a similar low point in the ratio, the market saw a violent rebound that slapped all the bears in the face
• Now in early 2025, the same script is playing out again—the market may not repeat itself exactly, but the rhythm is always strikingly similar

Why is a big move possibly brewing?

**Funds are in place**: Massive amounts of stablecoins are parked in exchange accounts, and this money has no other use than to buy crypto assets. Judging by the scale, this is not retail behavior—it's the collective action of institutions and whales.

**Supply has tightened**: Bitcoin continues to flow from exchanges to cold wallets, indicating that selling pressure is drying up. When tradable liquidity is significantly withdrawn, the cost to push up prices drops to extremely low levels.

**Sentiment is at rock bottom**: When the market is flooded with "the bull run is over"