Speaking of BTC’s price evolution over the past decade-plus, there’s one line on the monthly chart that’s especially worth watching—the 7-month moving average. Historically, it has often acted as the dividing line between bull and bear markets.

Let’s look at the present:
Last month, the monthly candle closed at -17.5%, forming a significant bearish candle, and the price initially broke below the 7-month moving average (the blue line in the chart). But don’t rush to conclude that the bull market is over.

A truly “confirmed breakdown” depends on what happens next—can the price reclaim this line? Only if it fails to reclaim it does the breakdown become definitive.

Now, let’s consider the MACD:
On the monthly timeframe, the MACD is also showing the early signs of a bearish crossover this month. Does this mean a trend reversal is underway?

History holds the answer.

Back to early 2022, at the end of the last bull market:
At that time, the monthly chart also broke below the 7-month moving average, and the MACD crossed bearish as well. What happened next? BTC saw a fierce rebound that lasted more than two months.

But after the rebound, it still couldn’t reclaim and hold above the 7-month moving average. It was only after this “confirmed breakdown” that the bull market was officially over.

Looking further back at the mini bull run at the end of 2021:
After dropping below the 7-month moving average on the monthly chart, the MACD also crossed bearish. There was a rebound that lasted three months, but BTC still couldn’t reclaim and hold above the blue line.

That mini bull run ended there, followed by a “March 12”-style double bottom.

So, the current situation is:
An initial breakdown ≠ the end of the trend. The key is whether the price can recover in the coming months. Technical indicators provide signals, not verdicts.

History doesn’t repeat itself exactly, but the rhythms are often similar. Be patient and wait for confirmation.