XRP drops below $2, the market is wailing—but do you really understand what’s happening behind the scenes?

Over the past week, on-chain data shows that whale addresses have cumulatively sold 390 million XRP, equivalent to about $783 million. That’s a scary number, and panic spread instantly. But interestingly, another set of data quietly tells a different story: the proportion of long-term holders, those holding for 1-2 years, has climbed from 8.58% to 9.81%.

What does this mean? Some are dumping, but others are picking up the slack. And the buyers aren’t impulsive retail investors, but seasoned players who have already weathered at least one bull and bear cycle.

The market is never as simple as "drop = bad, rise = good." The real game is: who is creating panic, and who is taking advantage of it. Massive whale sell-offs will cause prices to fall, that’s a fact; but long-term capital is quietly accumulating at low levels, and that’s also a fact. Both coexist, and that’s the full picture of the market.

This phenomenon isn’t uncommon in the crypto market. In industry lingo, it’s called "chip rotation"—short-term speculative funds exit, while long-term strategic funds enter. Price volatility is just the surface; the flow of holdings is the essence. While you’re anxiously staring at the candlestick charts, someone else is calmly calculating their cost basis.

So what should you do now?

First, don’t get swept up by headlines like "whale sell-off." The key isn’t who’s selling, but at what price level and which funds are stepping in to buy. From a technical perspective, $2 is an important psychological threshold, and there’s historical support around $1.94. But if you only watch the price tick by, you’ll always be a step behind.

Second, during a sharp drop, the last thing you should do is blindly try to catch the bottom or panic sell. Stay calm and observe the flow of funds and changes in holding structure. On-chain data is more honest than candlestick charts—it’ll show you who’s panicking, and who’s smiling.

Remember this: emotion is the most expensive commodity in the market. When everyone is yelling "it’s over," that’s often when chips are the cheapest; when everyone’s shouting "to the moon," you might be the one left holding the bag.

Markets always sprout from despair and end in euphoria. What you need to do is stay clear-headed when others lose their minds.