Tomorrow's looking pretty predictable if you trust the odds. Polymarket's showing a massive 95% probability that the Fed drops rates by 25 basis points. That's about as close to a sure thing as you get in this game.
The consensus is basically locked in at this point. Quarter-point cut incoming. Markets have already priced this in, but the real action might be in Powell's press conference afterward - that's where the surprises usually hide.
Anyone positioning ahead of the announcement? Rate cuts typically juice risk assets, but with expectations this high, we might see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario play out.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
9 Likes
Reward
9
5
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
SquidTeacher
· 4h ago
A 95% probability sounds reassuring, but I think this is actually the most dangerous time.
View OriginalReply0
FlashLoanPrince
· 4h ago
There’s a 95% chance it sounds reassuring, but if something unexpected really happens, it’s all for nothing. A single sentence from Powell can overturn all predictions.
View OriginalReply0
failed_dev_successful_ape
· 4h ago
95% probability it's already set, but I'm betting Powell will pull something unexpected.
View OriginalReply0
ChainChef
· 4h ago
nah 95% odds is just asking for the rug pull moment, powell's presser is where the real seasoning happens tbh
Reply0
OffchainWinner
· 4h ago
What does a 95% probability even mean? It still depends on what Powell says. In past years, they’ve always preferred to do the opposite at times like this.
Tomorrow's looking pretty predictable if you trust the odds. Polymarket's showing a massive 95% probability that the Fed drops rates by 25 basis points. That's about as close to a sure thing as you get in this game.
The consensus is basically locked in at this point. Quarter-point cut incoming. Markets have already priced this in, but the real action might be in Powell's press conference afterward - that's where the surprises usually hide.
Anyone positioning ahead of the announcement? Rate cuts typically juice risk assets, but with expectations this high, we might see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario play out.