Tomorrow's looking pretty predictable if you trust the odds. Polymarket's showing a massive 95% probability that the Fed drops rates by 25 basis points. That's about as close to a sure thing as you get in this game.



The consensus is basically locked in at this point. Quarter-point cut incoming. Markets have already priced this in, but the real action might be in Powell's press conference afterward - that's where the surprises usually hide.

Anyone positioning ahead of the announcement? Rate cuts typically juice risk assets, but with expectations this high, we might see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario play out.
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SquidTeachervip
· 4h ago
A 95% probability sounds reassuring, but I think this is actually the most dangerous time.
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FlashLoanPrincevip
· 4h ago
There’s a 95% chance it sounds reassuring, but if something unexpected really happens, it’s all for nothing. A single sentence from Powell can overturn all predictions.
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failed_dev_successful_apevip
· 4h ago
95% probability it's already set, but I'm betting Powell will pull something unexpected.
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ChainChefvip
· 4h ago
nah 95% odds is just asking for the rug pull moment, powell's presser is where the real seasoning happens tbh
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OffchainWinnervip
· 4h ago
What does a 95% probability even mean? It still depends on what Powell says. In past years, they’ve always preferred to do the opposite at times like this.
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