How much longer can the suspense over a December rate cut last? The latest data has pushed the probability directly to 87.6%—it looks like a 25 basis point cut at the December 9-10 meeting is almost a done deal.

Employment data is the biggest driver. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.44% in September, rising for three consecutive months, and the doves have already started signaling intensively. On the inflation front, there’s been some breathing room: core CPI was up 3.3% year-over-year in November. While that’s still some distance from the 2% target, at least the trend is moving in the right direction.

Interestingly, market expectations have been on a rollercoaster this month—by mid-November, the probability of a rate cut had dropped below 50%, but now it’s surged back to a high level. If there really is a cut this time, the federal funds rate will fall into the 3.50%-3.75% range. As for 2026, some are predicting two more rounds, but the hawks aren’t buying it; they’re still watching the follow-up data closely.

At the end of the day, it’s still too early to draw conclusions. The data will tell the story—let’s wait and see.