The US employment data came out in the early hours, and to be honest, it’s a bit grim.

There were 128,000 new jobs added, and the unemployment rate jumped straight to 4.2%—both numbers are worse than market expectations. The result? Rate cut expectations soared instantly, with the probability of a rate cut in March next year shooting above 80%.

BTC and ETH took a rollercoaster ride: first a sharp dip, then bouncing back to around $68,000. US stock futures also fell first and then rose, showing a bit of a split market sentiment.

But it’s not that simple.

The job market is actually already tearing apart—services are shrinking, manufacturing isn’t picking up, and the Fed probably can’t hold out much longer this time. More importantly, US Treasury yields plunged, the dollar index fell below 104, and liquidity expectations are being repriced.

For the crypto space, the logic is clear: rising rate cut expectations → a weaker dollar → institutions have stronger needs to hedge against inflation → capital starts to tilt toward crypto assets.

Just look—BlackRock’s spot ETF has seen net inflows for 17 consecutive days, and on-chain whale addresses are holding the highest amounts since October. Smart money has already been quietly entering.

In the short term, US stocks might get a boost from rate cut expectations, diverting some capital. But over a longer cycle, once dollar liquidity truly eases, that’s the real core driving force for the crypto market.

But one thing to watch: the December options max pain point is at $65,000, so these data swings are easy to amplify and manipulate. But if the trend really forms, every pullback is actually an opportunity.

Now the market’s focus has already shifted from “will there be a rate cut” to “how long will the cuts last.” Once the Fed really loosens its stance, the altcoin market could even break out early.

Remember this: before the liquidity inflection point arrives, holding is far more important than timing.