Tonight is another data bombardment night—only 6% suspense left for the Fed rate cut?

Starting at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight, a series of employment data will be released—first, the November layoff report, followed by initial jobless claims half an hour later (market expects 220,000), and factory orders monthly rate as the finale at 11 PM.

But honestly, these numbers might just be a formality. How crazy is the market now about betting on a 25bp rate cut in December? On one prediction platform, the probability has surged directly to 94%, basically a done deal.

With expectations so one-sided, unless tonight’s data brings a shocking surprise, it will most likely just reinforce the rate cut narrative. For the crypto market, expectations of looser liquidity continue to heat up, so near-term sentiment remains bullish. Of course, if initial jobless claims deviate significantly from expectations, that could be a different story.