Sometimes Bitcoin’s price action really feels like voodoo. Looking back at the candlestick charts from the past decade or so, I noticed a pretty weird pattern—if November closes down, December is usually not much better.

Just look at the data. In 2013, November dropped nearly 30%, and December was even crazier, evaporating another 35%. Same thing in 2015—November fell 18%, December kept dropping another 13%. The worst was 2018: November crashed more than 36%, and December was still falling. 2019 and 2022 basically followed this script too.

This pattern is right there, and it’s pretty interesting to see. But should you trust it completely? Not necessarily.

The most unpredictable thing about crypto is that it always manages to come up with something new. 2023 was a counter-example—November went up, and December kept rising, totally overturning that “red November brings red December” theory.

What does this tell us? The market is changing. The current situation is nothing like a few years ago. Institutional money is pouring in, countries are rolling out new regulations left and right, and the global economy is more complicated than ever. Any one of those variables could throw the whole market for a loop.

So the question now is: after a drop in November 2025, how will December play out?

Traditionally, you’d expect more downside, but this time might just be the exception. After all, market sentiment can flip on a dime—a single piece of news can reverse everything. Yesterday everyone was panic selling, and today a bit of good news could spark a major turnaround.

Historical data is useful for reference, but don’t treat it like gospel. If you want to survive in this market, formulas alone won’t cut it. No one can say for sure if history will repeat itself. Whether things go by the script or flip upside down, all you can do is watch and wait.

In this space, it never hurts to keep something in reserve. After all, the only thing you can count on is that nothing is certain.