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The key to market trends? It still comes down to liquidity as the main thread.
Looking back to September 2019, the Fed halted QT and ended the balance sheet reduction that had dragged on since October 2017—coinciding precisely with BTC’s pullback after a minor bull run. Then came the March 12, 2020 crash, when COVID-19 directly ended the bear market and kicked off a bull run. If it weren’t for this black swan event, prices might never have broken below the middle Bollinger band.
Is history repeating itself?
In December 2025, QT comes to a halt again, effectively loosening the constraints on liquidity. This round of QT began during a bear market and endured the grind of the 15,500 bottom, but now, it seems we’ve finally turned the page.
Yet, something feels off about this bull market—the wealth effect is just too weak. So I’m wondering, could this wave that started in 2023 merely be a small-scale rebound?
From a technical perspective: Since BTC broke above the middle Bollinger band in October 2023, it’s retesting the band for the first time in November 2025. The odds of a one-off breakdown are low, but is this the absolute bottom? I wouldn’t bet on it. Still, for those dollar-cost averaging, it’s time to start building positions gradually—at the very least, this is a buying opportunity.