2025-12-09 06:24:28

Here's the thing people keep getting wrong:

Seeing 90% on a prediction market ≠ 90% probability that aliens get announced tomorrow.

What it actually means? Traders betting heavily that *some* UFO file drops in a way that technically checks the platform's resolution boxes.

Could it happen? Absolutely possible.
There's genuine momentum behind declassification efforts right now.

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defi_detective

· 17h ago

Alright, that's the problem... That 90% of prediction markets is not what you think at all. Give me a break.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 23h ago

This is the number game in the casino. Even 90% is just an illusion built on chips. When it comes to the actual evidence, it all depends on how each department defines "public"...

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POAPlectionist

· 12-09 06:54

The way prediction markets work is indeed easy to deceive people; 90% doesn't mean anything, it's just gamblers betting on the probability of the document leaking.

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PensionDestroyer

· 12-09 06:53

That 90% figure is purely gamblers playing games, don’t take it seriously.

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DefiPlaybook

· 12-09 06:43

Another wave of "data illusions" in prediction markets: 90% of chips accumulated does NOT equal a 90% real probability. It's just like looking at TVL data—you have to dig into the underlying logic.

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GateUser-e51e87c7

· 12-09 06:33

The thing about prediction markets is that most people have it backwards. 90% doesn’t mean there’s an alien press conference tomorrow; put simply, it’s just degens betting that some UFO document leak will meet the platform’s resolution criteria. Could it happen? Definitely—there’s real momentum for declassification right now.

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MoonlightGamer

· 12-09 06:28

The figures in prediction markets can be really misleading; 90% sounds impressive, but in reality it’s just betting that a UFO document that technically fits the platform’s rules will drop... I’ve seen this playbook many times.

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