Bitcoin hangs at April-line support as macro, on-chain signals diverge

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Bitcoin hangs at April-line support as macro, on-chain signals diverge Original Link: Bitcoin sits on a key 0.382 Fib support as traders eye the Fed, soft ETF flows and rising on-chain “liveliness,” leaving price vulnerable but primed for a relief bounce.

Summary

• Bitcoin trades at a critical 0.382 Fibonacci support, with a breakdown risking a retest of April lows and higher timeframe structure damage.
• Fed meeting, jobs and inflation data, plus weak ETF inflows and low volumes, keep upside limited while volatility compression skews near-term risk lower.
• On-chain “liveliness” and certain exchange signals suggest long-term holders are re-engaging, creating conditions for stabilization and a relief bounce.

Bitcoin at Critical Technical Level

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a critical technical level that could determine the cryptocurrency’s near-term trajectory, according to market analysts monitoring key support zones.

The digital asset is positioned at a crucial Fibonacci support level, with traders warning that a breakdown could push prices toward levels last seen in April, according to technical analysis shared by market participants.

Market analysts identified the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone as a critical threshold for bullish market participants. “It’s also pretty much the last major support before testing the April lows again, which would break this high time frame market structure,” according to market commentary.

Bitcoin Falls Below Key Support

Bitcoin briefly fell below a key support level over the weekend during what analysts characterized as a leverage liquidation event before recovering. The move was described as typical low-liquidity weekend price action that resulted in the elimination of both long and short positions.

Market attention is now focused on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where a rate cut is widely anticipated by traders. However, cryptocurrency markets have shown muted performance since the October rate reduction, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized cautious monetary policy.

Macro Tailwinds vs. Market Structure

“Bulls will point to the Treasury General Account rebuild, the end of Quantitative Tightening, and looming rate cuts as a liquidity windfall for Bitcoin,” analysts wrote in research notes. However, they added that hypothetical macro tailwinds are “irrelevant if the underlying message lacks conviction and the market structure fails to support a sustained move.”

Upcoming U.S. employment data and inflation figures may prove equally influential. If the economic data reinforces expectations for continued monetary easing, renewed liquidity inflows could fuel a broader recovery across digital assets.

On-Chain Signals Suggest Renewed Demand

An on-chain indicator known as “liveliness” is climbing despite subdued price action, according to analysts monitoring blockchain data. The metric measures the balance between coins being transacted and those being held, weighted by age. Analysts stated the divergence suggests renewed underlying demand, with dormant coins moving at levels not observed in years—indicating that long-term holders may be re-entering the market.

The indicator tends to rise during bull markets as older coins move at higher prices, reflecting fresh inflows and greater conviction among market participants, according to analysts.

Seller Exhaustion and Stabilization Signals

Recent market analysis stated the market is showing “seller exhaustion” following a period of heavy deleveraging and exits by short-term holders. “The combination of extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion has created the conditions for a stabilisation phase and a relief bounce,” according to market analysis reports.