Those long green bars on the market software are stretching further and further, and the Fear & Greed Index has plunged straight down to 22—the lowest point so far this year since the start, just a thin line away from "Extreme Fear." A lot of people in front of their screens are probably feeling uneasy.

But then again, the most interesting thing about the market is this: the more fearful it gets, the more opportunities tend to pop up. I’ve been tracking this index for more than a day or two—looking back at the records: the black swan event in 2020, the sharp drop in 2021, the grinding bottom in 2023—every time the index hits around 20, a rebound always comes unexpectedly.

Right now, it looks bleak, but the medium- to long-term fundamentals are actually solid: the Fed has made it clear that it's entering a rate-cutting cycle, so with looser liquidity, risk assets naturally get a boost; the overhyped altcoins have had their bubbles squeezed out, most of the junk projects have been cleared away, and now funds are starting to pile into more reliable projects; stablecoin legislation is moving forward, mainstream crypto ETFs are being listed, and regulatory frameworks are gradually improving—these are not just short-term hype concepts, but real groundwork being laid for the industry.

The market's current indecision, to put it plainly, is just people being unsettled by external variables like war and tariff frictions. It’s like a layer of fog temporarily blocking the way forward, but the fog will eventually clear. Once this noise fades away, the market will continue on its path.

Zooming out, this year’s trend is almost identical to 2021: that year, the first half was driven by greed, then came a sharp drop and panic, a recovery, another dip, and then the bull market took off. This year, greed just broke out earlier due to certain events, and this wave of fear, coincidentally, is hitting at about the same time.

Is that really a coincidence? Clearly, it’s the market’s emotional cycle repeating itself. Once the panic subsides, those long-term values suppressed by sentiment will eventually pull the market back onto a growth track.

This crypto business was never about luck—if you find the right rhythm and direction, you can always make sense of even the messiest situation!