#ETH走势分析 $ETH $SOL $ZEC

The Fed’s rate-cutting window is about to open, but the real turning point may not be in the rate cut itself—the key this time could be hidden in the logic of balance sheet management.

The market is largely convinced that a new round of rate cuts will arrive this week. However, PineBridge’s Head of Multi-Asset Michael Kelly bluntly said, “Rate policy is clearly restrictive, but the actual impact may not be as significant as imagined.” The nearly 17% surge in US stocks this year has been driven more by balance sheet policies stimulating consumption among high-net-worth individuals than by simple rate declines.

Reality is harsh. High interest rates are squeezing the survival space of small businesses and low-income groups, while making credit card bills much lighter for high-income earners. K-shaped divergence has already appeared—credit card data reflects this clearly: the upper tier supports consumption, while the lower tier struggles in a debt mire.

What’s more noteworthy is that despite growing calls for rate cuts, the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 4.14%, and borrowing costs remain high. The real focus of the market has shifted to a more fundamental question: Will the Fed restart its bond purchase operations?

Bank of America predicts that starting in January, it may launch monthly bond purchases of $45 billion to supplement reserves; Vanguard’s outlook is more moderate, forecasting $15–20 billion in monthly bond purchases as a routine operation, but the signaling effect behind this should not be underestimated.

Kelly expects to see a 25 basis point rate cut this week, with rates approaching the so-called neutral level. But here lies the contradiction—the Fed is planning to “flood” the market and expand its balance sheet through bond purchases on one hand, while proceeding cautiously with rate cuts on the other. Is this prudent decision-making, or does it hint at some deeper uncertainty brewing beneath the surface?

This liquidity reshuffle has only just begun, and more variables will gradually emerge. For $ETH and other crypto assets, every macro policy adjustment could rewrite the market’s rhythm.