#ETH走势分析 Institutional Perspective: Is Ethereum Undervalued?

Recently, many seasoned analysts have suggested that Ethereum may be significantly undervalued at its current $3,000 price point. Some voices have even set a long-term target price of $62,000, which sounds extreme, but their reasoning is worth a closer look.

**Real Growth at the Ecosystem Level**

The Layer 2 ecosystem has accumulated over $85 billion in total value locked. This is not just a nominal figure—sharding technologies like Danksharding are about to go live, which are expected to push transaction throughput above 20,000 per second. More realistically, Layer 3 solutions are steadily accommodating enterprise-level applications, which all validate Ethereum’s core value as a settlement layer.

**The Economic Model Is Quietly Changing**

In 2024, the Ethereum network has burned over 12 million coins, representing approximately $3.6 billion in value. Meanwhile, staking yields have remained stable in the 4.5%-5.2% range, and more importantly—the network’s net issuance has turned negative, reaching an annualized rate of -0.3%. This deflationary expectation does indeed affect long-term valuation.

**Institutional Holdings Are Reversing**

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust premium has turned positive, and major asset managers like BlackRock have been accumulating, increasing their holdings by over 180,000 ETH in the past year or so. Open interest in the options market has also surpassed the $20 billion mark, indicating institutional positioning.

**Technical Indicators Show Signals Too**

On the charts, there’s a weekly MACD golden cross, and a clear triple bottom pattern has formed around $3,000. Funding rates have remained positive for seven consecutive weeks, and the 200-day moving average is providing strong support. All of these point to potential upside in the short term.

**But Risks Do Exist**

It’s important to be cautious about potential delays in network upgrades, changes in Federal Reserve policy affecting liquidity, the revival of competing blockchains like Solana, and the current 1.8:1 long/short ratio in the derivatives market, which may indicate excessive leverage. These are all variables to watch before any major market moves.