#美联储重启降息步伐 Let me first share some of my personal predictions for 2026.

In crypto, I think Bitcoin has a shot at reaching $150,000, but there will definitely be a few sharp drops along the way—it could fall back to $70,000-$80,000 or even worse. As for traditional markets, the A-share index will most likely fluctuate within the 3,800 to 4,400 range. Gold should see repeated tug-of-war between $3,900 and $4,500. Silver might double—I’m pretty optimistic about that. In terms of exchange rates, the RMB will most likely appreciate to around 6.8.

The shift in monetary policy is already very clear. The Fed started cutting rates in December last year, and this year will probably cut another two or three times, bringing rates below 3%. Japan is going the other way and might raise rates one or two times.

Real estate will continue to be under pressure. In third-tier and lower cities, another 10%-15% drop isn’t a problem. In non-core areas of first- and second-tier cities, the drop could reach 15%-20%, but the decline will be more gradual than before. The reshuffling of the auto industry will accelerate, and I expect two or three major manufacturers to get into serious trouble, possibly going bankrupt or restructuring.

As for the US stock market bubble? It won’t burst in the short term—it might even keep rising. As for the risk of regional wars, I don’t think one will break out in 2026.

Lastly, a bit off-topic: for the World Cup champion, pick either England or Spain. For the NBA champion, I’m optimistic about the Thunder.