Speaking of LUNA, this name that once made countless people rich overnight and then wiped them out just as quickly is recently going viral in various groups again. Many people are asking: Is this surge a chance to buy the dip?

Here’s my take: LUNA might still have some potential, but as for LUNC making a comeback? Highly unlikely.

These past couple of days, both LUNA and LUNC have skyrocketed nearly 100%. There’s been a frenzy of news—Is Do Kwon getting released? After looking into it, that’s a complete misinterpretation. His sentencing isn’t until December 11, and there’s no way he’ll be released in the short term; he’s likely facing 5 to 12 years in prison. So this surge is essentially driven by hype and speculation.

So why the sudden spike?

The trigger is actually pretty absurd: a crypto media reporter wore a T-shirt with the LUNA logo, and the whole thing snowballed on social media. Add in rumors about TFL reaching a settlement with the SEC, plus the community calling for token burns… all these bits of news combined ignited market sentiment. The 24-hour trading volume did indeed surge by 450%, but if you look closely, the coin’s liquidity is actually very thin; a small amount of capital moving in or out can send the price soaring.

A lot of people are asking: Can LUNA reach $1?

Let’s do the math. The old LUNC has a circulating supply of over 5.5 trillion coins. If it went to $1, the market cap would be $5.5 trillion—that’s higher than the entire crypto market cap. Do you think that’s possible?

Now look at the new LUNA 2.0, with a circulating supply of 130 million coins. The current price is $0.126, so it’s still more than 8 times away from $1. The key point is that its ecosystem has basically come to a halt, and many exchanges have suspended trading—so where’s the support supposed to come from?

LUNA has an old problem: after every surge, there’s always a sharp drop. This time, it’s very likely that big players are using positive news to create liquidity, then quietly cashing out. If retail traders chase the top now, most of them will end up stuck.

On my side, I did have a follower who entered at $0.07 on the 4th and has already doubled and taken profits. These short-term opportunities do exist, but only if you position yourself ahead of time—not by jumping in after the news is everywhere.

If you’re really optimistic about LUNA, at the very least, you need to figure out a few things: Is there any sign of the ecosystem recovering? Will exchanges reopen trading? Can the community’s token burn plan actually be implemented? Before these fundamentals become clear, any surge is just a flash in the pan.

That’s how the market works—hot topics come and go quickly. Instead of chasing the news, it’s better to observe calmly and wait for real opportunities before jumping in.