The current round of slow, volatile gains in the A-shares market actually hides a clear market logic—there’s no need for sharp surges or plunges; steady recovery is the main theme right now. Regarding whether to enter or exit the market in the near term, several key judgments are worth noting.



**Index Movement Matches Expectations, Seeking Certainty Amid Volatility**
Since rebounding from 3816 points, the market encountered resistance at 3914 points, then pulled back to fill the gap at 3889. After trading volume fell below 1.6 trillion, the market consolidated. Last Friday saw a strong rebound with increased volume, and today’s high opening filled a minor gap before another upward push, precisely covering the blank zone above 3927 points. Every step has been traceable. This kind of slow, volatile rise is actually quite healthy: when market confidence is lacking, there’s capital stepping in to support the bottom, which clears out weak holders without creating new lows, and individual stocks have opportunities to rotate.

**Low Volume Isn’t a Bad Thing, Turning Points Often Hide in Divergences**
When last week’s trading volume dropped below 1.6 trillion, market sentiment was extremely pessimistic. But the real meaning of shrinking volume is “it can’t fall further,” which often means new opportunities are brewing. Sure enough, from that day, individual stock sentiment warmed up first, followed by the index rebounding and recovering, and until today’s gap was filled, the entire rhythm has played out as expected.

**Today’s In/Out Strategy: Don’t Chase Short Term, Hold for the Mid Term**
After today’s gap fill, it’s highly likely that trend-following funds will rush in—an unchanging pattern in A-shares. Last Friday’s increased volume plus the weekend’s positive news continued to ferment, leading to today’s further surge with high volume. There may be more momentum-chasing funds entering in the afternoon, and the day’s total trading volume may break 2 trillion. But beware: most trend-following funds are momentum-driven, and the main players know this well. After a large influx of such funds, tomorrow will likely see divergence and volatility.

- **Short-term players:** If you didn’t set up positions last week and are hesitant to buy into today’s rally, don’t chase in the afternoon to avoid being caught holding the bag tomorrow; if you already have positions, you can take partial profits on the rally, or if not in profit, just hold and watch.
- **Mid-term investors:** No need to worry about short-term fluctuations—now is the window to plant seeds for the spring rally next year. There will be ups and downs, but capital is waiting for the Fed’s rate cut and for important meetings this month to conclude. The overall trend is positive, so be patient with your holdings.

**Upcoming Rhythm: Don’t Fear Pressure, Focus on Rotation**
Will there be a pullback after the gap fill? Pressure certainly exists, especially as it approaches 3950 points, which will be more pronounced, but don’t be quick to dismiss the rebound. Look at the leading brokerage CITIC Securities—it led the charge both last Friday and today, sending a strong signal that this rebound has solid capital backing.

The likely rhythm ahead is “up for two or three days, then volatile adjustment, then a slow climb again.” This volatility won’t affect the rotation of stocks and sectors. For short-term trading, focus on sentiment turning points—take profits when things overheat, enter when there’s divergence; for mid-term, focus on the spring rally, ignore short-term swings, and stick to your positions.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • 6
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
0/400
RugPullSurvivorvip
· 12-11 02:21
The idea of bottoming out with decreasing volume has been heard many times. Can it really remain unchanged this time? It's either taking profits at highs or spring market conditions; it feels like the same story every time. Is CITIC Securities leading the charge? It looks more like the final push before the main force starts to sell off. The advice to chase gains and cut losses in the short term sounds like nothing, everyone knows it, but no one actually listens. With a trading volume of 2 trillion, it all depends on who will be the first to run when the time comes. Spring market next year? It's better to watch what the Federal Reserve does this week. This rebound has some substance, but don’t be too greedy; take profits at high levels before 3950. Decreasing volume has always been like a cat sitting there—whether it’s building up momentum or no one is playing, we'll know tomorrow. Holding stocks is easy to talk about but hard to do; when the mindset collapses, everything else is useless. There are opportunities for rotation, but the key is to find that breakout leader.
View OriginalReply0
probably_nothing_anonvip
· 12-10 18:10
The saying that "volume shrinks and prices won't move" sounds pretty good, but I feel like it's just the main force doing a shakeout to trap traders. If there's divergence and fluctuation tomorrow, the retail investors who chased the high today will probably be harvested again. I believe in the spring market for medium-term, but this short-term chase for gains is really uncertain. That 3950 point level feels like a tough nut to crack; let's see how the main players handle it. Those who should have sold yesterday already did, but looking at the current pace, it's still a bit shaky. Basically, it's the big players repeatedly accumulating, so don't be scared by shrinking volume or tempted by increasing volume. I think this rebound might top out around 3940, so don't get too optimistic. Holding and observing is indeed the safest strategy right now to avoid the stress of daily ups and downs. Is the spring market reliable? Let's first see what the Federal Reserve has to say. Is CITIC Securities leading the charge? That makes me even more cautious; a leading stock protecting the market often indicates underlying weakness. Chasing gains in the afternoon will probably have to accept the loss tomorrow, this routine is way too old.
View OriginalReply0
SandwichTradervip
· 12-08 05:58
Low volume just means it can't drop any further, that logic is sound—I’ve judged it this way before too... But honestly, the probability of divergence and choppy trading tomorrow is still quite high, there's too much momentum chasing coming in. It sounds like the strategy for the spring rally is still solid, the key is being able to withstand short-term volatility. That resistance at 3950 definitely needs attention. With CITIC leading the charge, there must be something behind it, but we also need to watch out for major players selling off. How many times have we talked about chasing highs and cutting losses, yet people still fall for it? Seriously, don’t chase it this afternoon, even making a profit tomorrow is questionable. Holding stocks until before the Spring Festival should still give us a chance. The Fed's rate cut will happen sooner or later.
View OriginalReply0
TokenAlchemistvip
· 12-08 05:58
ngl, this is just disguised retail FOMO wrapped in technical jargon... the whole "volume contraction = opportunity brewing" narrative is peak market psychology manipulation tbh
Reply0
MemeTokenGeniusvip
· 12-08 05:56
Is a low-volume drop that can’t go lower actually an opportunity? I agree with this logic, but I’m just worried tomorrow will be another round of chasing highs and becoming the bagholder. On one hand, I’m holding onto the dream of a medium-term spring rally, on the other, I have to watch out for those short-term bottom-fishing traps... it’s tough. Is 3950 really that solid of a support level? Feels like the brokers might also be accumulating in this round. Is CITIC leading the charge because there’s real support, or are they just harvesting retail investors again... I can’t figure it out. A slow, steady climb sounds nice, but my few thousand bucks really can’t handle these so-called “healthy pullbacks.” I’m holding and watching, but honestly, I can’t sleep well at night because of it.
View OriginalReply0
0xInsomniavip
· 12-08 05:42
Low volume means it can't drop any further—I agree with that logic. But you really have to be careful with chasing rallies and selling dips; the main players' strategies are just too sophisticated. CITIC Securities leading the charge is definitely a strong signal, but we still need to see if it can hold above 3950. Waiting for the Fed to cut rates? When is Kizaru actually going to cut? Feels like they've been talking forever with no real action. Chasing short-term rallies is just giving your money away; better to stick with medium-term positions and wait for the spring rally—it's almost here anyway. I've believed in the “low volume recovery” narrative before, but still got hammered. Will this time really be different? The 3950 level is pretty tough. Feels like every time it gets up there, it just gets knocked back down—then it's another round of corrections. Turning points happen in the middle of disagreements—that's true. But how do you actually know when the turn has happened? Always feels like hindsight.
View OriginalReply0
  • Pin
Trade Crypto Anywhere Anytime
qrCode
Scan to download Gate App
Community
  • 简体中文
  • English
  • Tiếng Việt
  • 繁體中文
  • Español
  • Русский
  • Français (Afrique)
  • Português (Portugal)
  • Bahasa Indonesia
  • 日本語
  • بالعربية
  • Українська
  • Português (Brasil)