The latest CME data has sent a strong signal—the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December has soared to 86.2%, with only a 13.8% chance of no change.

The market has clearly started to bet on the pace of this rate cut cycle. Looking ahead to January next year, expectations for a cumulative 25-basis-point cut account for 65.4%, and nearly a quarter (24.8%) believe there will be a direct 50-basis-point cut.

If these expectations are confirmed, the logic of global capital flows will need to be re-evaluated. Traditional safe-haven assets may fall out of favor, and liquidity expectations for risk assets—especially the crypto market—will noticeably improve. However, before the rate cut actually happens, the volatility may have only just begun.