#比特币对比代币化黄金 US economic data for November has been released, and the signals are a bit mixed.

First, manufacturing—really not looking good. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is only 48.2, lower than the expected 49, and has stayed below the 50 boom-bust line for nine consecutive months. This means factories are still having a tough time, with insufficient orders and sluggish production. Recovery? There's no sign of it for now.

But the service sector is holding up. The November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reached 52.6, not only beating expectations but also a bit higher than last month. This marks six consecutive months above the boom-bust line, and for the past two months, it's even been trending upward. Areas like dining, logistics, and financial services are still relatively stable at the moment.

The job market is even more interesting—the data is conflicting. The ADP report shows that the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in November, while the market had expected an increase of 10,000, so that's a sharp reversal. This indicates that companies are clearly less willing to hire. On the other hand, initial jobless claims for the week were only 191,000, much lower than the expected 220,000, so the number of people losing jobs hasn't increased significantly. The current situation might be: companies aren't hiring much, but they're also not laying people off in large numbers.

What the market cares about most is what the Fed will do. According to CME data, there's an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December—pretty much a done deal. By January next year, the market is even pricing in a 27% chance of cumulative 50 basis points in cuts. Investors clearly believe the rate-cutting cycle has begun.

Next week is the December FOMC meeting, and on Friday the core PCE data will be released—this is the inflation indicator the Fed watches most closely. If the PCE data aligns with rate-cut expectations, the signal for a shift in monetary policy will become even clearer. For risk assets like $BTC $ETH, expectations of more liquidity are often a positive factor.