#美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC Right now, we’re truly standing at a crossroads.

The technical analysts have already sounded the alarm. Peter Brandt is eyeing the charts, saying the patterns look off, and Titan of Crypto is warning that key support levels are on the verge of collapsing. Thinking back to that crash in November, the maximum single-cycle drawdown hit 36.45%—a lot of people are still uneasy. This time, the bears are well-prepared, rolling out all kinds of technical indicators and invoking the ghosts of past downturns.

But the bulls aren’t slacking off either. The Fed is meeting next week, and the market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut—historical data shows that risk assets usually perform well during rate-cutting cycles. Even stronger are the liquidity signals: over the last ten trading days, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows on eight of them, a stark contrast to the frantic outflows back in November. It’s starting to really feel like institutional money is coming back in.

The betting market on Polymarket is pretty interesting: the probability of reaching $95,000 before year-end is pegged at 61% by bettors. Neither bulls nor bears are backing down, and this very divergence is a catalyst for heightened volatility.

Policy, technicals, and liquidity are all pulling in different directions. In the next few weeks, we’ll either see a breakout or a breakdown—the window for sideways hesitation won’t last much longer.