#比特币对比代币化黄金 Ethereum 4-hour observation: Tug-of-war between bulls and bears around $3067

I've been watching ETH all afternoon, and it's now hovering at $3067.79, with a 24-hour slight increase of 0.76%—a classic grinding market.

First, let's talk about support and resistance: the lower support at $2968 is the lower Bollinger Band, and this level needs to hold; the upper resistance at $3168 is the upper band ceiling, and whether it can break through depends on future volume.

The technicals are a bit tangled right now. In the moving average system, MA5 and MA10 have already formed a golden cross and are moving above MA20, but the price itself is still suppressed below MA20 and hasn't stabilized above it, so overall it's a slightly bullish consolidation pattern. On the MACD, DIF ( 1.50) is below DEA ( 4.14), and the histogram is negative at -2.64, indicating that short-term momentum is indeed lacking, but there are clear signs of convergence—possibly brewing a directional breakout.

The %B value of the Bollinger Bands is only 0.41%, with the price hovering around the middle band ( 3068.34), and the bandwidth has narrowed to 0.07%, meaning volatility is highly compressed. RSI14 is at a neutral 49.05, and on the KDJ, the K value of 63.20 is higher than the D value of 58.02, with the J value at 73.56, showing a short-term bullish bias but not yet overbought.

The capital flow is interesting: in the 4-hour contract market, there's a net outflow of $523 million, but looking at the 6-8 hour cycle, there's actually a net inflow of $136 million, signaling that short-term funds are starting to flow back in. Although spot is still seeing outflows, the pace has slowed significantly, and sentiment in the contract market is recovering faster than spot.

The volume-price structure is worth noting—a recent K-line surged from a low of 2903.75 to 3150 before pulling back, with trading volume spiking to 1.32 million lots, forming a long lower shadow, which is a clear reversal pattern. The 3000-3050 range has been repeatedly tested and held, making it a key support zone.

In terms of strategy, I'm personally inclined to cautiously go long: around the current price of 3067, you can try a small position, or enter in batches in the 3050-3070 range. Stop-loss is recommended at 2960 (about 3.5% downside), which coincides with the lower Bollinger Band and support. The first target is 3165 (R1 resistance), with a more aggressive second target at 3280 (R2), for a potential 3-7% profit range.

For risk control, remember two things: if it falls below 2960, exit immediately; the 3160-3180 area is a dense resistance zone—watch to see if it can break out with volume. In a choppy market, don't go heavy—5-10% position size is about right, and building positions in batches is safer than going all-in at once.

Just to be clear: these are just my personal observations, not investment advice. Everyone knows the risks in crypto—manage your pace and risk accordingly.