Market watchers are getting nervous—analysts now peg the chance of a U.S. recession hitting within the next 12 months at over 30%. That's not a small number when you're talking about the world's largest economy potentially stumbling.

For crypto holders, this kind of macro risk matters more than people think. Recession fears typically drive flight-to-safety moves, and while some argue digital assets could act as hedges, history shows they often correlate with risk-off sentiment in traditional markets during initial panic phases. Worth keeping an eye on how this probability shifts as Fed policy and economic data evolve.