This BTC market cycle is so bizarre that it's baffling.

On one hand, technical indicators are flashing wild warnings: the 50-week moving average has been breached, long-term holders are starting to sell, and according to the traditional script, these are classic bear market signals.

But on the other hand, the Federal Reserve has already started cutting rates and has paused quantitative tightening. By 2026, they might even open the liquidity floodgates. History tells us that once liquidity floods the market, risk assets can skyrocket.

So here’s the question: when macro monetary policy steps in forcefully, does BTC’s “halving = bull market” golden rule still hold?

In my view—the cycle logic still exists, but it may get distorted.

We need to clarify two things:

**First, a look back at history.** Does Fed rate-cutting and balance sheet expansion really make BTC take off immediately? The answer might not be what you expect. In previous liquidity cycles, BTC’s reaction wasn’t simply “liquidity = surge”; the transmission path is more complex than it seems.

**Second, looking ahead.** Based on the current monetary policy direction, will BTC keep surging ahead, or is a correction still unavoidable?

If you look at data from the past decade, you’ll notice an interesting pattern: BTC’s wildest rallies almost always happen when liquidity is abundant. Whenever the federal funds rate stays low, the market tends to experience a frenzy.

But the biggest difference in this bull run compared to previous ones is...