#美联储重启降息步伐 After reviewing Friday's session, this rebound in crude oil is quite interesting. WTI closed at $59.67, up 1.2%, and it’s clear that the bears are starting to hesitate.

There are three main support factors in the market right now: First, the Fed is increasingly signaling rate cuts, which means global liquidity will get looser and theoretically, energy consumption demand will pick up; second, supply-side issues remain unresolved, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to suppress production recovery, and inventory structure hasn’t been sorted out; third, from a technical perspective, the bottom is being consolidated, and bulls have the upper hand in the short term.

On the daily chart, oil prices have tested the $56 level several times without breaking below it—this support is holding for now. The candlesticks are flipping back and forth, but bearish momentum is clearly fading. The MACD is tangled below the zero line, not giving any particularly clear signal yet. If $56 is really broken, the medium-term trend could shift.

The hourly chart is more straightforward—after stabilizing at the lower end of the range, prices have started to climb, and moving averages are beginning to spread upward, indicating that short-term momentum is recovering. The transition from weak to strong has begun, and the chance of breaking out of the current range is rising, though there probably won’t be a huge move for now.

What about the outlook for next week’s open? Personally, I’d prefer to wait for a pullback.

If there’s a dip to the $59.0-$59.5 area and it holds during Monday’s early session, you could consider going long, targeting $61.5-$62.5, with a stop loss below $58.5. Conversely, if prices shoot straight up to the $62.5-$63.0 resistance zone, you could try a light short, targeting $61.0-$60.5, with a stop above $63.5.

A more aggressive approach would be to follow the breakout: If it firmly breaks and holds above $63, add to longs with a target of $64.0-$64.5, and set a stop loss below $62.5. On the other hand, if $59 support is broken, I’d choose to sit on the sidelines and re-evaluate around $58.0-$58.5.

The market never follows your script—respect volatility, stick to logic, and manage your positions. That’s the basic skill set for surviving this game. If there’s any breaking news or key levels are breached during trading, be ready to adjust your strategy at any time.

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