How will the market perform at the end of the year? My judgment is clear—focus on defense, and set up short positions when prices rise.

First, let's look at the macro side. The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectation has already been hyped by the market to a 99.9% probability. Such a consensus expectation often means the good news has already been priced in. History has repeatedly proven a golden rule: buy the rumor, sell the news. The moment the rate cut is implemented might be the turning point for market sentiment.

On the technical front, there are also signals. This daily rebound has stalled exactly at the 30-day moving average, losing momentum after hitting a high near 94100. The selling pressure at this level is not a coincidence, and with some recent news disturbances, the sustainability of the rebound is in doubt. In addition, the hype around Japan's rate cut is over. If the market starts pricing in negative expectations in advance, bearish sentiment may accelerate.

Looking at the long-term cycle, the crypto market's four-year rhythm has never been broken. The probability of entering a bear market in 2026 is significant, so any rebound now could be the last struggle before a major breakdown and reset. US stocks are already approaching historical highs and, fueled by certain themes, have seen a bull run, but capital flows are cyclical. Traditionally, the period before and after Christmas is a window for profit-taking.

Personally, I will build defensive positions in batches:
For BTC, consider splitting entries into three levels in the 90000-91500 range (3%, 5%, 10% of your position incrementally). The first target is 83600, and in extreme cases watch for 78800.
For ETH, also enter in batches within the 3060-3100 range, with a target of 2660, and in a deep correction, look for 2350.

That's all for the weekend. Everyone, manage your risks well. #ETH走势分析 $BTC $SOL