Economist Nicholas Lardy's making a bold call: he's projecting China's economy will outpace the US by at least 2x over the next three to five years. His take? The convergence story isn't dead—China's still closing the gap on total economic output.

What's interesting here is his rejection of the middle-income trap narrative. That's the theory where developing economies stall out before reaching advanced status. Lardy clearly doesn't buy it for China's case.

For those tracking macro trends and capital flows, this kind of divergence in growth trajectories tends to reshape where institutional money moves. Worth watching how this plays out.