Nearly $4 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expire Today; Analysts Believe Impact on Spot Market Is Limited

As of 16:00 today, over 36,100 Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of $3.336 billion are set to expire. However, since the scale of this expiry is relatively small compared to recent levels and the market has stabilized after Monday's sharp volatility, analysts generally believe that the likelihood of this expiry triggering significant unilateral market swings is low.

The relative calm in the market is related to the structure of the contracts themselves. According to Deribit data, the put/call ratio of the Bitcoin options expiring this time is close to 0.93, indicating that the forces of bulls and bears are almost balanced, with neither side holding an overwhelming advantage.

The market's main focus is on outstanding positions that have not yet expired. The total open interest in Bitcoin options across all exchanges is close to $55 billion. Among these, contracts with a strike price of $100,000 have the largest open interest, while the $80,000 to $85,000 range has accumulated nearly $2 billion in short positions, making these price levels key battlegrounds in the future.

Notably, although the impact of a single expiry is limited, the options market itself is undergoing structural expansion. For example, Deribit's Bitcoin options trading volume for October 2025 has reached a record monthly high, with annual trading volume showing significant year-on-year growth.

Traders are currently displaying mixed sentiment, showing a “cautiously bullish bias”—on one hand expecting the price to have bottomed, but on the other hand feeling frustrated by the market's repeated fluctuations.

In addition to Bitcoin, Ethereum options worth about $664 million are also set to expire today. Combined, the total notional value of cryptocurrency options expiring today is about $4 billion. In the spot market, Bitcoin’s price has pulled back slightly after encountering resistance at $93,000, while altcoins are generally under heavier selling pressure.

At the same time, the market’s overall attention has shifted to the upcoming U.S. employment data and how it will affect the 87% probability of a rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which may become a more critical factor in determining the short-term direction.

#比特币期权 # options expiry