QCP: Bitcoin remains stable for now, upcoming changes in Fed leadership to become the focus

On December 3, QCP released its Daily Market Watch, stating that after Monday’s sharp volatility, the market has entered a wait-and-see mode, appearing calm on the surface but far from relaxed. Bitcoin, after rebounding 5% from a low of $86,000, is quietly consolidating around the mid-$90,000 range. Meanwhile, stocks and FX markets are hovering ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, which will be light on data but heavy on political influence. Beneath the calm surface, it’s clear the market is preparing for the next round of catalysts.

Fed Leadership in Focus The next major market catalyst is increasingly likely to come from the Fed, especially its new leadership. Betting markets have rapidly shifted, showing about an 85% probability for Kevin Hassett to become the next Fed Chair, with Trump expected to confirm the appointment early next year. This leadership transition comes at a fragile moment for monetary policy, raising questions about how the new leadership might influence the Fed’s reaction function.

Miran will depart in January 2026. Bostic will depart in February. Powell will step down in May. This series of changes could make the FOMC lean more dovish than the market is used to.

Next Week’s FOMC: Limited Information, Elevated Risks The upcoming FOMC meeting adds a new layer of uncertainty. There will be no new CPI or NFP data during the meeting, leaving policymakers with far less visibility than usual. Even so, the futures market has priced in a 90% probability of a precautionary 25-basis-point cut next week. Market focus is shifting from pure inflation data to governance, policy bias, and institutional direction.

Crypto Markets: Temporary Relief, Unresolved Issues A major source of anxiety over the weekend has been temporarily alleviated. Strategy raised about $1.4 billion by issuing shares, extending operating funds to about 21 months and lifting mNAV to around 1.14. Management reiterated that BTC would only be sold if mNAV drops below 1.0. This has stabilized short-term market sentiment, but structural pressures keep the market on alert. The next key risk event is the MSCI index eligibility review (January 15), which could still trigger significant Strategy-related fund flows.

Current Status For now, crypto assets remain relatively stable but in a “tense stability,” awaiting more definitive signals. With limited macro catalysts and rising uncertainty over Fed leadership, digital assets are essentially on pause until policymakers provide the next clear guidance.