#数字货币市场回调 Current trend analysis: defensive trading strategy under the dominance of short positions.

Recently, the market situation for AVAX is indeed not very optimistic. I checked the on-chain data and technical indicators, and there are several signals worth noting.

First, let's take a look at the capital situation—there has been a net outflow of 4.21 million USD in the past 24 hours, indicating that funds are continuously leaving the market. Now, looking at the long-short game, the short positions account for 54.6%, clearly outweighing the long positions. On the technical side, the RSI is only 38, placing it in a relatively weak range.

In this configuration, I personally tend to be cautiously bearish. How exactly should I operate?

The current price around $12.97 can be considered for a tentative position, but do not take on too heavy a position. If the price rebounds to the range of $13.00-$13.10, you can gradually add to your short positions—this is often a trap for the trend.

But remember one thing: the stop loss must be set above $13.30. In case it breaks this level, it indicates that the short positions logic has failed, and you should run if needed, don't hold on stubbornly.

For the target level, the first level is $12.54, and after that, pay attention to $12.30. In extreme cases, it may test the $12.00 level.

In the end, shorting should go with the trend. The data is clear: funds are fleeing, sentiment is bearish, and the technology is weakening. But the market is always full of uncertainties; strictly controlling risk is more important than making accurate predictions.

The most taboo thing in a downtrend is trying to catch the bottom based on feelings. Instead of betting on a reversal, it's better to follow the trend and wait for the real turning point signal to appear.