#美联储恢复降息进程 Nick Timiraos, a bellwether figure of this level, has begun to sound the alarm. Hassett taking over the Fed can basically be considered a done deal. From now until Powell officially steps down in May next year, a subtle "dual-track operation period" has begun.

This script is actually not unfamiliar. Once the identity of the successor becomes clear, the cohesiveness of the existing system begins to dilute—the people in the policy team will instinctively gravitate towards the new decision-maker, positioning themselves accordingly. And the current leader? Their influence naturally diminishes.

So in the next six months, the Fed may not be as united internally. Disagreements among factions regarding how to adjust interest rates, whether to tackle inflation head-on, and where to position economic expectations are likely to come to the forefront. The divisions that were previously hidden may now become public.

For those of us who watch the market, the policy signals in the coming months will be a bit chaotic. We need to learn to distinguish: which are the official themes set by the authorities, and which are certain factions trying to test the waters or seize the narrative. The sense of chaos during this transition period itself is a new uncertainty factor—market expectations are likely to become more volatile as a result.