#数字货币市场回调 The Bank of Japan's policy shift may lead to a major shock in the crypto market.

Market rumors are brewing: the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has been pushed up to 80%, and it is approaching 90% in January. Behind this number is a potential shift that could leverage $19 trillion in capital flow.

The past is not like smoke. On the eve of Christmas in 2022, the Bank of Japan suddenly adjusted its yield curve control mechanism, causing a shock in the global market. Now, as the year-end approaches again — December 19 coincides with the eve of Christmas — market liquidity is already at an annual low. The combination of tightening policies and liquidity exhaustion has never been a good sign.

The Japanese yen interest rate has long hovered near zero, giving rise to massive carry trades. Funds are borrowed in yen at an extremely low cost and then redirected to high-yield assets such as US stocks and crypto market. Once interest rate hikes take effect, the siphoning effect of capital returning will be difficult to avoid. $BTC , as a high-volatility asset, will be the first to be affected—historical data shows that similar shocks have led to monthly declines of over 20%, with sustained net outflows from ETF channels and daily liquidation scales exceeding 400 million USD.

The Federal Reserve is also not optimistic. Powell has recently been tight-lipped about the policy direction, and a silence period often indicates that major decisions are imminent. With Japan tightening and the United States holding steady, under this dual pressure, crypto assets face not a single risk but a policy resonance.

Looking at $BNB again, its recent performance has been lackluster. After the leadership change, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and the prices of project tokens within the ecosystem are generally under pressure. However, the platform and the new management seem to be more urgent than retail investors, perhaps preparing a response plan.

The selling pressure triggered by the unwinding of carry trades belongs to a phase impact. Looking back to 2024, after the Central Bank of Japan raised interest rates, $BTC instead reached a historical high within a few months. The key observation window now is the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in December and the update of the Federal Reserve's dot plot.

Control your position and maintain liquidity. The market always belongs to those who survive.