Powell's latest statement has arrived, releasing several key signals.

First is the policy direction - it completely relies on data. Currently, economic growth is actually exceeding expectations, but the downward pressure on the job market is clearly increasing. The labor market is showing a peculiar state of "low growth + low unemployment," which also explains why the interest rate cut in September made sense.

Regarding inflation, the price pressure brought by tariffs is gradually becoming apparent, and the transmission risks should not be underestimated. However, one point to note is that an increase in commodity prices does not equate to a comprehensive inflationary wave.

The reduction of the balance sheet is nearing its final stages, and the Federal Reserve still retains flexibility in its operational scale, with the long-term goal of holding only government bonds. Currently, reserves are relatively ample, but signs of tightening have already emerged in the money market.

The shift in policy direction towards neutrality is a major trend, but the pace is crucial—acting too quickly or too slowly carries risks. The impact of policy on employment and inflation inherently has a lag, and now there is an additional issue: if the government shutdown continues, data availability will be affected. As for the role of AI in productivity? It is still difficult to assess at this stage.