BTC fell by 7.3% last week, dropping from 115,600 to 107,200, while ETH fared worse, falling by 12.1%.

The market is oscillating repeatedly in the range of $104,000 to $115,000. It seems that the amplitude is narrowing, but the actual volatility is still very high—indicating that the main whales are offloading, and retail investors' emotions are also in turmoil. From a technical perspective, there is still some room for a fall to complete the current platform consolidation, but the possibility of continuing to consolidate for a few weeks cannot be ruled out.

**What’s happening in the market?** The FOMC interest rate cut met expectations, US corporate earnings exceeded expectations, and there has been progress in negotiations between Trump and President Xi. All of these should be positive factors. However, the big whales are crashing the market at this time, and BTC could not rise above 115,000. Where's the problem? US stocks and AI concept stocks are still setting new highs, and the cost of engaging in crypto is too high. At the same time, gold has fallen below $4000, the US dollar has rebounded, and the probability of another interest rate cut in December has dropped from 90% to 50%, with the dollar appreciating taking the spotlight.

**How is the volatility?** The implied volatility remains stable, while the actual volatility is around 40 (high-frequency data on an hourly basis). Last week's significant fluctuations were mainly caused by reactions to the FOMC and the meeting between Trump and President Xi. However, in low-frequency data, after the coin price was pressed down to the 106,000-112,000 range, the volatility gradually decreased. Before the weekend, the Gamma short selling pressure was a bit high, but after the coin price returned to 107,000 on Monday, the pressure dissipated, and market liquidity has not yet recovered to previous levels.

**Options Market Signals?** The put skew has deepened - the upward volatility remains low, with significant selling pressure in the 112,000-116,000 range, while the downward volatility is more active. There is substantial risk below 106,000; when the decline widened on Thursday, the skew surged dramatically, but if the price does not break through, this extreme situation is hard to maintain. Excess kurtosis is declining, and both-sided liquidity is still decent, but the put/call spread strategy is still betting on volatility, putting pressure on Excess.

Continue to pay attention to U.S. data and Federal Reserve movements next week.