Last night, I felt that the rebound wouldn't be too strong. Institutions are waiting for good news to sell off, based on the recent rebound strength which has been consistently weak. This deduction is also supported by the fact that the Democratic Party in the US Senate has already passed the temporary funding agreement; it’s just waiting for the House Republicans to vote again on Wednesday Eastern Time to go through the process, which essentially means the government shutdown is almost certain to end. However, the market didn't rally smoothly during those days; it rose one day and even fell back the next. This isn't the typical pattern you'd expect if the end of the shutdown was a positive catalyst, so I believe institutions are using this as an opportunity to sell.

Additionally, on the weekly chart level, I think the market is already somewhat bearish, with trading volume declining. Therefore, I don't believe Bitcoin can return to its historical highs or reach new highs again. Although the odds of a rate cut in December are increasing, don't forget that I initially thought the best upward move would be in October and November, because a rate cut on October 30 combined with another in December 11 presents a good timing window. The best opportunity for a rally was actually during this period.

However, Trump didn't win the Nobel Peace Prize, and our country has imposed restrictions on US rare earths and stopped buying US soybeans, forcing Trump to negotiate with China. Before negotiations, he threw out a threat to reimpose 100% tariffs on China to gain leverage, which was a compromise but not decisive enough. Also, due to insider whales being caught in short positions, Trump made statements suggesting he might not meet with China, which made the market's sentiment more uncertain. This led to market declines, allowing insider whales to cover their short positions. Subsequently, the whales adjusted their positions to go long, and Trump called on the Republicans to end the shutdown to stabilize the stock market, which they did in advance.

The whales then bought more ETH, knowing the US government would soon end the shutdown, so their long positions wouldn't suffer losses. Yesterday, I saw that the whales had closed their ETH long positions and withdrew US dollars, indicating positive news and proactive position adjustments. This suggests there must be some reason behind it. Today, we saw the House end the shutdown and then propose to end insider trading.

The whales closing their positions and withdrawing all US dollars yesterday is a good sign. Short-term, whales won't trade much; otherwise, the market wouldn't rise. Everyone is watching these whales—whenever they get caught in a short, Trump tends to stir trouble, even risking US stocks. Now, the crypto market is more peaceful. Even the whales with 100% win rates, who had a 15-day winning streak and made $30 million, ended up trapped, adding to their positions and finally cutting losses for a $39 million loss.

In this market, the actions of institutions are more convincing than any whale. From the institutional perspective, buying Ethereum for staking allows both long-term holding and selling during December rate cuts. They can buy the dips later; with so many chips, they need to gradually sell off, and the current timing suggests some institutions are gradually exiting because they don't want to hold long-term.

As for Trump’s $2000 tariff "red envelope," I still think it's just a gimmick and can only be issued once. It’s not comparable to the direct cash payments during the pandemic. Recent rebounds in altcoins like ICP and FIL are just the last attempts before the bull market ends. A few days ago, Bitcoin was struggling, yet it suddenly jumped—obviously trying to push the price up before the market turns worse, then sell off.

I think those bullish on the market shouldn't be overconfident. I'm just warning that the market seems to be losing upward momentum. Yesterday, I saw someone drawing a 5-wave pattern expecting Bitcoin to reach 135,000. I had the same thought in September, thinking there might be another wave starting in October, but after the black swan event on October 11, I believe the timing was missed, and that fifth wave is gone. This bull market might have already ended early at around 126,000, after a small, irregular fifth wave.

Look at the fourth chart below: if it reaches 135,000, the fifth wave should have been completed last night at 102,000, which should have resulted in a big bullish candle. But this morning, the daily chart shows a bearish close last night, indicating that the more likely scenario is the blue line I drew, which suggests the fifth wave ended early and a downward wave has begun.

Additionally, I followed a blogger yesterday who advised others to short. I saw someone comment, "Still daring to short? Impressive." I think being bearish isn't wrong; this person’s analysis from both news and technical perspectives makes sense. So I also added a comment supporting his short position about 11 hours ago.