Let's keep this short and to the point about this round. Starting from 2.3, we entered a bearish phase, and a small black swan event directly broke the market deadlock.

Looking at BTC's performance this round, it is indeed somewhat disappointing. From Trump's inauguration, institutional buying by firms like BlackRock, to Bitcoin becoming a strategic reserve, among other major positive factors, Bitcoin only rose from the previous high of 73,600 to 126,000. It hasn't entered the doubling range or shown the level of performance expected.
Reviewing BTC and the four-year cycle pattern:
- After the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin's price soared from $12 to about $1100.
- After the second halving in July 2016, the price increased from around $650 to nearly $20,000.
- After the third halving in May 2020, the price climbed from about $8,700 to over $67,000.
- In April 2024, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving, reducing block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Each halving cycle, roughly ten months later, Bitcoin reaches a cyclical high, then enters a bear market correction. Meanwhile, the impact of the 2024 halving on supply is significantly weaker compared to earlier cycles.
According to data from Glassnode and Galaxy Research, this halving will reduce Bitcoin's annualized issuance rate from about 1.7% to approximately 0.85%. However, with about 19.7 million BTC already mined out of the total 21 million, the new issuance accounts for a very small proportion of the total supply, and its marginal impact on the market is diminishing. BTC pricing is already influenced by market liquidity.
Regarding ETH rotation: The second-largest coin has been dubbed the "aircraft carrier withdrawal machine" due to its recent decline. Later, the largest holder changed hands, and by late June, ETH broke out strongly, becoming the top traded asset of the year. Once it surpassed 2800, it confirmed the start of a bull market. Breaking 4100 further, it broke through capital differentiation, with 5000 just around the corner.
With upgrades like Prague, L2 mainnet development, and increased institutional holdings, ETH has only risen to around 4960—about three times the previous gains, making it one of the best-performing mainstream assets. The mainnet upgrade continues in December. Personally, I believe that breaking 6k is just a matter of time, pending a deep correction and consolidation.
3. Altcoin Season (Sector Rotation):
I believe everyone is quite interested in this. Whether it's the recent rise of established coins or last year's supported tokens, this cycle's altcoin performance has been quite painful. When the market rises, capital flows into altcoins; when it doesn't, they stagnate; and when the market falls, altcoins plummet.
Regarding sector rotation, from AI, meme, privacy, Merlin sectors, and others, we can clearly see the trends. Only the hype cycle can drive this wave—AI narratives broke out, meme tokens surged, privacy coins like ZEC and FIL performed strongly in the short term, and more Chinese narratives are emerging. Altcoin performance varies, depending on capital, hype, and the project teams behind them.
I think this is normal. From initial adoption to gradual acceptance, some people research while others become retail investors. The market is progressing, but people are not necessarily progressing themselves. It’s extremely difficult for one in ten thousand to stand out.
In summary, market changes are normal. People need to learn to adapt. The crypto space is for investing; opportunistic players should proceed with caution.