October Hangqing Core Strategy: Main Short, Auxiliary Long, Anchor Key Levels to Seize Swing Trading Opportunities

Market Backtesting:
The Bitcoin chart showed a high and then a drop in October. After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the price not only failed to rise but instead fell, compounded by Powell's hawkish statements that further suppressed the rebound momentum. Despite favorable factors like Trump's pause on tariffs, the lifting effect is limited, and the rebound can be seen as a window period for positioning short positions.

Key Logic Analysis:
1. Liquidity expectations have been fully digested: the "buy the expectation, sell the fact" effect of the interest rate cut has become prominent, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in December has significantly cooled down, lacking the momentum to support a strong price increase.
2. Institutional buying momentum is weakening: Compared to historical cycles, the current influence of institutional funds has diminished, and the trigger point for a new bull market has yet to appear.
3. Decoupling from the correlation with US stocks: While US stocks continue to reach new highs, Bitcoin is on a downward trend, which may be exacerbated by capital diversion or increasing risk-averse sentiment.
4. The wash trading pattern is clearly visible: After a significant drop in October, the tug of war between bulls and bears has repeatedly oscillated, forming a temporary top above 120,000. If it effectively breaks below 105,000, it will confirm a trend reversal to bearish.

Operating strategy:
Short position layout: When the rebound encounters resistance near 116,000, gradually establish short positions, targeting a drop to 105,000. If it breaks below, further look towards 100,000.
Long assistance: When it急跌至10.5万/10万支撑位, you can lightly enter a short-term long position, in and out quickly.
Key Signal: Pay close attention to the breakout situation at 105,000; an effective drop below this level will open up further downward space.

Summary:
The current trend has turned bearish, and the rebound is an opportunity to position short positions. It is necessary to strictly implement risk control strategies to avoid blindly bottom-fishing. #十月降息预测 #抄底币种推荐