#BitcoinMarketAnalysis

The battle between bulls and bears on Bitcoin in October - who has the advantage?

The month of October is coming to an end, and it is likely that Bitcoin will close the month with a reversal candle - a pattern reflecting the balance between bulls and bears.

What are the driving forces of each side this month? Understanding the dynamics of this conflict helps investors identify the main causes and manage risks more effectively.

- Falling forces in October
Starting with pessimists, several indicators show increasing selling pressure towards the end of October. Short-term investors (STH) are actively taking profits, sending large volumes of bitcoins to exchanges.

According to CryptoQuant data, about 18,700 BTC were transferred to exchanges by short-term holders in the last week of October, primarily for profit-taking.

The scheme of cumulative profits and losses of bitcoin holders in the short term compared to cryptocurrency exchanges.

This reflects a cautious approach. Despite the fact that the price of Bitcoin has recovered from less than $104,000 to over $130,000, many short-term investors are skeptical about the ability of this growth to maintain its momentum. Therefore, they chose to exit the market, locking in their profits, and are waiting for clearer price indicators.

Moreover, data published by Blockworks and Coinbase shows that demand for BTC from digital asset traders has dropped to its lowest level this year.

DAT Purchase Scheme by Assets. Source: Blockworks and Coinbase

If weak demand persists and short-term shareholders continue to pressure sales, bears may push the price of Bitcoin below the support level of 100 thousand dollars.

Are there bullish signals?
Nevertheless, optimists are still far from defeat. On-chain metrics indicate the possibility of a strong recovery.

Firstly, the fluctuating supply coefficient of stablecoins (SSR) remains close to its lowest level in the current cycle, indicating an excess liquidity of stablecoins compared to Bitcoin.

The oscillating percentage supply scheme of stablecoins (SSR). Source: Glassnode.

According to Glassnode, a decrease in the SSR level indicates that there is a large amount of stablecoins waiting on the sidelines – ready to be deployed as soon as market confidence returns.

"Historically, such periods precede stronger support from supply when market confidence is restored," reports Glassnode.

Moreover, the expansion of USDT (Tether) adds another positive signal. CoinGecko data shows that the market capitalization of USDT has increased from 175 billion USD at the beginning of October to over 183 billion USD.

Analysis conducted by Maartun using data from CryptoQuant shows that when the market capitalization of USDT grows faster than its 60-day moving average, it is often associated with a short-term upward momentum in BTC.

The chart of the change in the market value of USDT compared to the price of Bitcoin . .

Martin noted that "The growth of USDT = new capital... It's still a positive system."

This positive situation still persists, indicating an influx of new capital into the market; however, it has not yet been utilized. Stablecoins like USDT represent liquidity awaiting the start of the next bull cycle.

The battle for growth and decline in October remains finely balanced. Pessimists have a short-term advantage due to profit-taking and weak demand. At the same time, optimists rely on the abundance of stablecoin liquidity and historical cycles to predict any changes.

Regardless of which side wins, October 2025 will break traditions. October could become the worst month for Bitcoin since 2019.

Changing market dynamics indicate that historical patterns now have less predictive power than before.