Market Weekly Outlook: Selling Pressure Eases, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Dominate the Market

Since the sharp drop on "1011", the spot and futures CVD indicators have experienced their first stabilization, indicating that the previously concentrated strong selling pressure has significantly eased. The market has subsequently shown signs of recovery, with Bitcoin breaking the $116,000 psychological barrier on Monday, and Ethereum also holding steady at a key support level, stabilizing at $4,200 after breaking $4,000.

This week's market information shows a characteristic of "fewer data and more meetings": affected by the U.S. government shutdown, the frequency of important economic data releases has decreased, but the global central bank interest rate meetings are entering a dense period. The policy direction of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan will become the core variables affecting market sentiment. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the market's expectation for an interest rate cut in October is highly consistent— the probability of a 25 basis point cut is as high as 98.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 1.7%.

Core Event Calendar for the New Week

Thursday 02:00: The Federal Reserve announces the latest interest rate decision;
Thursday 02:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;
Friday 01:15: 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan delivers a public speech. #十月加密市场预测 #今日你看涨还是看跌？ #GUSD双重收益