Is the Bitcoin bull run over? After peaking at 126,000, the four-year cycle theory issues a bear market warning.

On October 6th, after Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,198.07, the market began a volatile downward trend, with the maximum drop exceeding 13% within 24 hours, and the total daily liquidation amount once surpassing $19.1 billion. Combining the four-year cycle theory with current market signals, seasoned observers have pointed out: this bull run has officially peaked, and the crypto market is entering a Bear Market cycle, a judgment that is particularly worth noting for new entrants.

Halving-led cycle password: the final chapter of the bull run has been written.

The core logic of the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory revolves around the "halving event"—the mining reward is halved every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), directly altering the market supply and demand dynamics, thereby dominating the rhythm of bull and bear transitions. Its complete cycle can be clearly divided into four phases: Bull Beginning (starts before halving) → Halving (midpoint of bull run) → Bull End (continues after halving) → Bear Market (begins after the end of Bull End), and the durations of Bull Beginning and Bull End are generally equal, while the Bear Market usually lasts for about a year.

On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving, reducing the daily new supply for miners from 900 to 450 coins. According to cyclical patterns, the corresponding "bull tail" phase ended on October 6, 2025, with a peak of $126,000. From the timeline perspective, the duration of the "bull start" market before the 2024 halving matches the duration of the "bull tail" market after the halving, perfectly aligning with the evolutionary rhythm of historical cycles.

In the view of cycle supporters, the impact of halving on price far exceeds other variables such as macroeconomics and regulatory policies. After the first three halvings, Bitcoin reached its cyclical peak about a year later, subsequently entering a Bear Market adjustment. This pattern has been repeatedly validated in the market trends of 2012, 2016, and 2020, making it the most recognized cyclical framework in the crypto space.

Market signals confirm: the curtain has been raised on the Bear Market.

The current performance of the market corresponds to the characteristics of a Bear Market predicted by cycle theory. In terms of price, Bitcoin has fallen over 4% since its peak of $126,000, and has been consolidating in the range of $121,000 to $122,000, indicating a decrease in upward momentum and increasing divergence in market expectations for future trends.

The warning signals from both the technical and funding aspects are equally evident. Elliott Wave Theory analyst Jon Glover points out that the five-wave bullish structure from the end of 2022 to April 2025 has been completed, and indicators such as the inverted ascending scallop pattern further reinforce bearish expectations, predicting that prices may drop to $70,000 or even lower. Meanwhile, the surge in premium put options on the institutional side reflects increasing concerns among professional investors about downside risks. In addition, over $400 million in contracts liquidated within 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 60% of the liquidations, indicating that market confidence in bullish positions has significantly shaken.

It is worth noting that, although some opinions suggest that institutional funds and ETF inflows may support prices, from the perspective of cyclical patterns, historically, even when there has been temporary funding support, it has not been able to reverse the inevitable arrival of a Bear Market after the halving. Moreover, currently, 94.5% of Bitcoin is already in circulation, and the impact of new supply on the market is diminishing. Institutional funds are more likely to delay rather than reverse the cyclical trend.

Warning for newcomers: Don't bet during a Bear Market cycle.

For newcomers entering before and after the halving in 2024, recognizing the cycle phase is more important than predicting specific points. Even if the October 6th high of $126,000 has slight discrepancies with the theoretical bull peak date, it does not affect the core judgment that we are currently in the Bear Market zone.

Historical data shows that the Bitcoin Bear Market cycle typically experiences a pullback of more than 80%. If calculated at the current price of $121,000, there may be a significant adjustment ahead, and investors who entered at earlier high points without proper risk control will face substantial losses. It is particularly important to be cautious, as new entrants often lack experience with cycles and may mistakenly interpret fluctuations during corrections as "normal volatility," or blindly attempt to buy the dip at the beginning of a decline, ultimately incurring large losses.

The essence of the cycle is a concentrated reflection of market rules. Although the crypto market is gradually becoming financialized, with the influence of institutional funds and macro factors increasing, the four-year halving cycle still provides a core framework for understanding the market context. For ordinary investors, at the stage where the Bear Market cycle is clearly underway, reducing position exposure and controlling the investment pace is far more meaningful for survival than chasing short-term fluctuations. #ETH反弹在即？