1. After 2020, the trends of the copper-gold ratio and the ETH/BTC ratio are highly similar, and both are near historically low values.

2. One logical understanding of this phenomenon is that the scalability of the BTC public chain and economic activities are not well developed. The main purpose for investors holding BTC is to store value and gain exposure to the risks of crypto assets, which is why BTC is more like gold and has been referred to as digital gold.

3. The ETH public chain is the pioneer of smart public chains, equivalent to the Bitcoin public chain + smart contracts. There are a large number of "economic activities" (DeFi, NFT, etc.) on Ethereum, and it is necessary to "consume" ETH to carry them out (gas fee). Therefore, only when economic activities flourish will the price of ETH rise— it is more like an "industrial metal" on the public chain.

4. Therefore, the copper-gold ratio and the ETH/BTC ratio can be regarded as the relative activity levels of on-chain and off-chain production/saving activities.

5. But why is the correlation between on-chain and off-chain economic activities so strong? Perhaps it is because both are driven by some underlying variables, such as the global monetary environment (tight liquidity) and expectations for global economic growth (very pessimistic), etc.

6. This week (especially on Friday), industrial metals and ETH prices have also seen a simultaneous rebound, but the trading narratives seem to be different—industrial metals are trading on the "supply-side story" domestically, while ETH is more about trading the "ETH" version of MSTR hoarding coins, with no significant recovery in on-chain economic activity.

7. Currently, the market discussion is more about whether it will be a soft landing or a hard landing, and there aren't many views on synchronized global economic recovery. However, if the market starts trading global recovery in the second half of the year or every year, copper, gold, and ETH/BTC long-short positions may become the hottest trades.