🇬🇧 WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

This week, we’ve frequently heard the following phrase:
“We drop when NASDAQ drops, but we don’t rise when it rises.”
Of course, this isn’t the first time we’ve heard that. But is it really the case? Not exactly.

Back in January 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high while the NASDAQ showed little movement. Likewise, when NASDAQ climbed to 22,000, BTC didn’t follow. In fact, even when U.S. markets were hitting ATHs, there was capital outflow from stocks.

Looking at this week:
From Monday to the end of the week, there wasn’t significant capital inflow into U.S. equities. The MAG7 stocks moved mostly sideways. Since the ETF approvals, BTC has been behaving more like a stock and has been trading in a tight range all week. Ethereum (ETH) has also remained resilient due to increasing staking expectations.

So, why are altcoins dropping?
It’s simple: Both BTC Dominance (BTC.D) and the ETH/BTC pair are rising. This means BTC and ETH are absorbing market share from altcoins. Since no new capital is entering the market, this leads to stagnation in BTC/ETH and decline in altcoins.

Looking at the TOTAL metrics:
• TOTAL is holding above $3.2T.
• TOTAL2 was rejected at $1.27T and is holding the $1.17T support.
• TOTAL3 couldn’t stay above $920B and is heading towards the next support at around $841B. This reflects weakness in altcoins.

I don’t expect this zone to persist for long.
Currently, we’re in a scenario where “TOTAL and TOTAL2 are at support, but TOTAL3 is not.” Many altcoins are sitting on major supports, while some are still in the “Aversion” phase. That’s why I wouldn’t want to be on high leverage in this environment.

Altcoins on major supports could react sharply like dry land receiving water, while those still in “Aversion” could drop another 10–15% before reaching support.

Overall, I believe we are still in the ‘Aversion’ phase for altcoins—
But the end may be near.