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Has the era of digital gold really arrived?
In fact, Bitcoin's "independent market" is facing threefold challenges:
First of all, it still has a somewhat distant correlation with the US stock market - whenever the S&P 500 breaks below key support levels, Bitcoin also faces selling pressure from algorithmic trading.
Secondly, the cryptocurrency regulatory policies that the Trump administration may introduce are like the Sword of Damocles; most importantly, against the backdrop of global liquidity tightening, all risk assets are destined to face the fate of being repriced.
On the technical front, Bitcoin is playing a life-and-death game near the 200-day moving average. "The current market is like dancing on the edge of a knife; a breakthrough above $92,000 could trigger a collective frenzy in the market." The essence of this battle for the throne of safe-haven assets is the clash between the old order and new forces.
When the "anchor of asset pricing" represented by the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond begins to shake, and as central bank digital currencies are accelerated, the rise of Bitcoin may herald deeper changes.
However, investors need to be fully aware that Bitcoin's "safe-haven property" has not yet undergone the test of a complete economic cycle, and its price volatility is still over 10 times that of gold. Just as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis reshaped gold's status, perhaps only by experiencing a true global crisis can we see who the real king of safe havens is!