Will 2026 passive components copy the AI memory shortage storm?

As AI server and high-performance computing demand continues to rise, market attention has largely focused on GPUs, memory, and storage devices. However, as early as a Fusion industry report released earlier this year, it pointed out that a long-ignored segment—passive components—has quietly become a potential risk point in the 2026 supply chain, and could even repeat the parts-shortage crisis of 2018–2019.

Fusion Report: Passive components are similar to the 2018 MLCC shortage

The report states that the current market has not seen a broad-based shortage, but multiple structural factors are already emerging, indicating that a supply-demand imbalance is taking shape. First, the demand side has shown clear changes. With the widespread adoption of AI servers, high-density computing platforms, and next-generation data center architectures, the number of passive components required per single system—such as capacitors and connectors—has increased significantly. Even if overall shipment growth is limited, the “passive component usage per device” continues to climb, becoming a key source of rapidly amplified demand.

This trend is highly similar to the period when MLCCs (multilayer ceramic capacitors) were in shortage in 2018. At the time, demand was simultaneously boosted by smartphones and electric vehicles, and early growth in the Internet of Things also drove capacitor demand sharply upward. Meanwhile, major suppliers such as Murata, TDK, and Taiyo Yuden shifted capacity toward higher-margin products, squeezing the supply of general-purpose products, ultimately leaving the supply-demand imbalance to persist long-term.

Will passive components replicate the memory supply-demand imbalance scenario?

Now, similar circumstances are reappearing. The report notes that the 2024 market experienced a surplus, leading manufacturers to focus on cost control rather than expanding production, keeping overall capacity stable or even slightly contracting. When demand rebounds again in the second half of 2025, the supply chain has little buffer capacity, further worsening the tight situation in early 2026.

Another key issue lies in the structural limitations of capacity expansion. Unlike highly standardized semiconductors such as CPUs and GPUs, passive components cover thousands of specifications—varying in size, voltage, material, and certification requirements. Even if total demand increases, it is spread across a large number of different part numbers, making it difficult for any single production line expansion to comprehensively ease supply pressure. In addition, manufacturing components such as capacitors involves complex layering and long certification cycles. Capacity expansions typically require more than 8 to 12 months, making it hard to respond quickly to demand fluctuations.

Rising copper and silver prices push passive component quotations upward

Cost pressures are also increasing in parallel. The report states that since 2025, copper and silver prices have been steadily rising, directly driving up the manufacturing costs of capacitors and connectors. Copper is widely used in conductors and structural materials, while silver is used in electrodes and conductive layers. As both prices rise, suppliers face pressure to pass on costs. In addition, inflation has also appeared in PCB-related materials such as copper foil and laminates, further affecting quotations across the overall supply chain.

Against this backdrop, multiple categories of passive components have been identified as high-risk areas for early 2026, including tantalum capacitors, polymer capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, high-value MLCCs, and connectors. Among these, some products’ lead times have already been noticeably extended, and prices have also shown an upward trend.

As capacity is gradually locked in through long-term contracts and large projects, available market inventory could disappear in a short period of time, leading to situations where later procurement faces limited options and uncontrolled costs. Analysts note that if companies continue planning late-stage procurement on a traditional timeline, it will be difficult to respond to such structural contractions.

Will this 2026 passive components story replicate the AI memory shortage storm? The earliest it appeared was on Chain News ABMedia.