Bernstein: Quantum Computing’s Impact on Bitcoin Is “Not a Do-or-Die Matter”—Upgrades Could Be Key

Gate News message: Bernstein analyst points out that while quantum computing poses a potential threat to Bitcoin, it is not an apocalyptic ruling—it is part of a natural technological upgrade cycle. Analyst Gautham Chugani and colleagues emphasized that this risk is neither life-or-death nor unprecedented, and it is not limited to the cryptocurrency space.

In March this year, Google reported that quantum computers could break the encryption algorithms of crypto networks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum within 9 minutes, sparking attention in the community. To address potential threats, technology companies plan to migrate identity verification and digital signature systems to post-quantum cryptography before 2029. Bitcoin contributors are also pushing forward the BIP360 proposal to proactively patch signature vulnerabilities, while the Ethereum Foundation released a four-part roadmap to ensure that its network—valued at $260 billion—completes the upgrade at the same time.

Quantum computing uses qubits that are in a superposition state of both 0 and 1, enabling it to quickly crack traditional RSA and elliptic curve encryption. This capability poses a potential threat to the Bitcoin network, prompting intensified coordination among the financial industry, regulators, and blockchain developers. UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said the potential security impact of quantum technologies on cryptocurrencies still needs further verification, while Chaincode Labs research shows that if upgrades are not carried out in time, 20% to 50% of future Bitcoins could be at risk.

Despite the risks, Rodolfo Novak, CEO of Bitcoin network security company Coinkite, cautioned that quantum threats should not be exaggerated or ignored. He noted that there is currently no imminent danger for Bitcoin, but the community needs to plan upgrades in advance because the upgrade process may take years. Blockchain developers are discussing how to protect network security and respond to technological progress at a practical pace, to ensure that major crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum remain robust in the quantum era.

Overall, quantum computing’s threat to Bitcoin is more of a technical challenge than an immediate crisis. The key is the community’s and developers’ early preparation and system upgrades to ensure long-term network security and stable asset value.