Ethereum may face a new downward risk, with analysts warning it could drop to $1,200.

BlockBeats news, on March 30, cryptocurrency analyst Leshka.eth expressed the view that Ethereum’s price trend is recently showing a technical pattern similar to historical “bull market traps,” with further downside risk in the short term, potentially targeting $1200, representing a potential decline of about 40% from current levels.

The technical analysis shows that the Supertrend indicator for ETH on the daily chart has failed to sustain its previous two “bullish” signals (in October 2025 and January 2026), which subsequently triggered significant pullbacks of 45% and 48%, respectively. A similar structure has now appeared again at the key level of about $1990, and a break below this level could trigger a new round of accelerated decline.

The fundamentals and capital flows are also weak. On a macro level, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and recession expectations are suppressing risk appetite, while the market’s expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have significantly shifted further out; in terms of capital flows, the US spot Ethereum ETF has seen a net outflow of about $300 million recently, with on-chain demand dropping to a 16-month low.

On-chain data shows that the number of large holding addresses (≥10,000 ETH) has stagnated since peaking at the end of 2025, and there are similarly no significant accumulation signs in the “whale” and “shark” addresses in the 1,000 to 10,000 ETH and 100 to 1,000 ETH ranges, reflecting a state of distribution and caution overall.

In the absence of strong buying support, if the key support levels are lost, the ETH price may face further downward pressure.